Straight forward first round picks
For the record, here are my quickie playoff picks. Feel free to make yours...
East
1) Boston over 8) Atlanta in four. I'd love for something cute to happen just to frustrate Simmons, but the Hawks were running on fumes for the past two months just trying to hold on to the last spot and are obviously thrilled just to be here.
2) Detroit over 7) Philadelphia in six. A terrible match-up for a veteran Pistons squad looking to avoid too much of a hassle in the first round before moving on to the nitty gritty. Philly has youth, size, energy and they're not afraid of the paint. They're going to make Detroit work like hell to advance.
3) Orlando over 6) Toronto in six. On paper the Raptors are just as talented but they underachieved terribly all year and Bargnani was a big disappointment. They're playing Ford too much again and Calderon not enough. I almost get the sense that they know they're not good enough to do anything, so you might as well showcase Ford as much as possible to deal him in the offseason. Also, there is a massive coaching edge to Orlando. The one chance the Raps have is if both Rashard Lewis and Hedo both choke in the playoffs, and both have feeble postseason resumes thus far.
5) Washington over 4) Cleveland in six. Well, here's where the "David Stern controls the league and the refs and it's all rigged" conspiracy theorists will be watching with rapt attention. If the zebras call it straight the Wizards are clearly more equipped and healthier and better coached and should pull the mini-upset. If LeBron gets 20 FTs a game, then be very, VERY worried about the fate of your Spurs. The Wiz have Arenas back and they're using him as the sixth man these days, which is the perfect role for him. He's like the Manu of the East, but with much worse shot selection and he's certifiably insane.
West
1) LA Lakers over 8) Denver in five. The more I look at this series the more uneven it seems. Denver has nobody who can even remotely check Kobe, but LA can throw Kobe at either Iverson or 'Melo and have decent success with it. Also the coaching disparity is massive - MASSIVE. I can't stress this enough. Unless both Gasol and Odom both play like scared little girls (and they have in the past, kinda like the Magic forward tandem) this should be a formality. A high scoring formality.
2) New Orleans over 7) Dallas in seven. I'm tempted to pick the Mavs, but I can't do it. I can't buy into Jason Kidd staying with Chris Paul for seven games. I can't buy into Kidd hitting open shots. Byron Scott knows Kidd better than anyone and I'm sure he's bitter as hell that Ason got him shitcanned in Jersey. That's a huge factor. Also, I don't think Dallas has the personnel to contain David West or Tyson Chandler. Unless Dirk and The Big Bug combine for 60 a game, I don't think they have the firepower to outlast the younger, springier Nooch.
3) San Antonio over 6) Phoenix in seven. I've already discussed and previewed this. I'm gonna be conservative here and say this will be an old school late 80's early 90's style series where the home team wins every game. Obviously our backcourt will have to come up huge because Phoenix will have the frontcourt scoring edge. Again, the coaching disparity should make a difference, but not if Pop is overly stubborn. Like I said, if Stern wants the Suns to win, they can win, but if he plays it straight, the home court and our experience can be enough. I'm not betting against Timmy and Manu.
4) Utah over 5) Houston in five. Houston gets game 3, that's it. They just don't have the horses to compete with the squad that Hollinger thinks is best in the West. It really sucks that Yao got hurt. I want everyone to compete at full strength and I like the big guy a lot anyway.
East
1) Boston over 8) Atlanta in four. I'd love for something cute to happen just to frustrate Simmons, but the Hawks were running on fumes for the past two months just trying to hold on to the last spot and are obviously thrilled just to be here.
2) Detroit over 7) Philadelphia in six. A terrible match-up for a veteran Pistons squad looking to avoid too much of a hassle in the first round before moving on to the nitty gritty. Philly has youth, size, energy and they're not afraid of the paint. They're going to make Detroit work like hell to advance.
3) Orlando over 6) Toronto in six. On paper the Raptors are just as talented but they underachieved terribly all year and Bargnani was a big disappointment. They're playing Ford too much again and Calderon not enough. I almost get the sense that they know they're not good enough to do anything, so you might as well showcase Ford as much as possible to deal him in the offseason. Also, there is a massive coaching edge to Orlando. The one chance the Raps have is if both Rashard Lewis and Hedo both choke in the playoffs, and both have feeble postseason resumes thus far.
5) Washington over 4) Cleveland in six. Well, here's where the "David Stern controls the league and the refs and it's all rigged" conspiracy theorists will be watching with rapt attention. If the zebras call it straight the Wizards are clearly more equipped and healthier and better coached and should pull the mini-upset. If LeBron gets 20 FTs a game, then be very, VERY worried about the fate of your Spurs. The Wiz have Arenas back and they're using him as the sixth man these days, which is the perfect role for him. He's like the Manu of the East, but with much worse shot selection and he's certifiably insane.
West
1) LA Lakers over 8) Denver in five. The more I look at this series the more uneven it seems. Denver has nobody who can even remotely check Kobe, but LA can throw Kobe at either Iverson or 'Melo and have decent success with it. Also the coaching disparity is massive - MASSIVE. I can't stress this enough. Unless both Gasol and Odom both play like scared little girls (and they have in the past, kinda like the Magic forward tandem) this should be a formality. A high scoring formality.
2) New Orleans over 7) Dallas in seven. I'm tempted to pick the Mavs, but I can't do it. I can't buy into Jason Kidd staying with Chris Paul for seven games. I can't buy into Kidd hitting open shots. Byron Scott knows Kidd better than anyone and I'm sure he's bitter as hell that Ason got him shitcanned in Jersey. That's a huge factor. Also, I don't think Dallas has the personnel to contain David West or Tyson Chandler. Unless Dirk and The Big Bug combine for 60 a game, I don't think they have the firepower to outlast the younger, springier Nooch.
3) San Antonio over 6) Phoenix in seven. I've already discussed and previewed this. I'm gonna be conservative here and say this will be an old school late 80's early 90's style series where the home team wins every game. Obviously our backcourt will have to come up huge because Phoenix will have the frontcourt scoring edge. Again, the coaching disparity should make a difference, but not if Pop is overly stubborn. Like I said, if Stern wants the Suns to win, they can win, but if he plays it straight, the home court and our experience can be enough. I'm not betting against Timmy and Manu.
4) Utah over 5) Houston in five. Houston gets game 3, that's it. They just don't have the horses to compete with the squad that Hollinger thinks is best in the West. It really sucks that Yao got hurt. I want everyone to compete at full strength and I like the big guy a lot anyway.
posted by Michael at 3:08 PM
4 Comments:
I keep wondering if one of these days the Nuggets will wake up and realize that they're talented. And then they go Patton on the Lakers and win.
Actually, that's just my fantasy.
Please don't predict, MetalMouth. I can't take 17 out of 18 seriously. Kelenna Azibuke? Rodney Stuckey? Are you kidding me?
The best player on the floor will be the Hornets' point guard and the Mavs don't have home-court advantage this year, but consider 20 reasons Dallas is better off against the No. 2 seed in the West than playing straight man for Golden State:
• Even if Avery Johnson prefers being a favorite, his players don't. You need a strain of arrogance to play the part lest doubt creeps in.
Michael Jordan had that kind of arrogance. Larry Bird had it. Kobe Bryant has it.
Dirk Nowitzki doesn't.
• The Mavs know they can beat the Hornets. Deep down, they weren't so sure about the Warriors. Golden State had won seven of its last eight regular-season games. Winning the season finale over the Hornets by 13 – with Jason Kidd's first triple-double as a Maverick – boosts confidence.
• The Hornets are 0-for-6 in best-of-7 series. David Moore tells us playoff experience is overrated, and he's right. Before pulling off last year's huge upset, Golden State hadn't been invited to the playoffs in 12 seasons. Here's the deal: When you're ahead, experience isn't an issue. When you're behind late, it helps to know you've done it.
• Don Nelson will not coach the Hornets.
• If Nowitzki isn't Ubermensch in the first round, it's still OK. Dirk's worst games came against New Orleans. He was 4-of-16 from the field Wednesday for 12 points, and 2-of-8 on Dec. 14 for a season-low seven points. And the Mavs won both games comfortably. Go figure.
• The Hornets haven't won in Dallas since Khalid Reeves ran the point for the Mavs.
• Kidd isn't as ancient as he looked Feb. 20. In his first game against the Hornets, he had more turnovers than assists and played point guard like Willie Mays handled center field for the Mets. Since Johnson has allowed him to post up on defenders, Kidd's confidence has returned. He probably won't hit five of eight 3-pointers as he did Wednesday – he may never make that many again – but for the first time as a Maverick, he didn't look afraid to try.
• Stephen Jackson will not torment Nowitzki. Or taunt the Mavs' bench.
• Despite two ugly losses in the great Northwest, the Mavs are peaking at the right time: 4-1 in their last five games against winning teams.
• Defense no longer drains the life from Dallas. Johnson preaches a relentless commitment that's difficult when it's not your nature. Out of necessity, he eased off. Good defense means making stops when necessary. Example: Double-teaming Hornets point guard Chris Paul in the backcourt during the Mavs' 30-6 run Wednesday.
• A seven-game series tests depth, and the Hornets' starters showed signs of wear late. Dallas' bench outscored New Orleans', 167-87, during the regular season series.
• The Hornets haven't won in Dallas since Vlade Divac was a Hornet.
• Byron Scott coached Jason Kidd, but he's never coached the Mavs.
• Jason Terry averaged more points against the Hornets this season than against any team but Milwaukee. The Mavs beat the Hornets on Dec. 14 and Wednesday because Terry scored 25 and 30 points when Nowitzki managed only seven and 12, respectively. Terry is averaging 21.6 points over his last five games, proof he's building chemistry with Kidd.
• Instead of figuring out how to plague the Mavs, Baron Davis wonders why Nellie forgot him.
• Brandon Bass wants to make Scott regretful. Bass had his best game against his old team on Wednesday, with 13 points and 12 rebounds. If Bass keeps it up, the Mavs could neutralize the Hornets' athletic frontcourt.
• Johnson won't bench Erick Dampier in the first round again. No one has benefited more from Kidd's presence than Dampier, who must overpower Tyson Chandler.
• For the first time in weeks, Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse are all reasonably healthy.
• If it means anything, the Mavs are the national experts' trendy upset choice.
• Sloan Wilson picks the Hornets in 7. If that doesn't convince you otherwise, nothing will.
Michael, I agree with all of your winners but one: the Mavs will beat the Hornets in six.
Don't be surprised if the Sixers and the Pistons go to seven games. Same goes for the Cavs and Wizards.
You're being too generous to the Nuggets. The Lakers should sweep them.
The Rockets will win two games against the Jazz, even without Yao.
big d in big d, 20 reasons?! I only count one: reason #20 contradicts the first 19.
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