Dunks Don't Win Titles

The 2009 NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic start tonight. If there is any correlation between the outcome of the series and how often each team dunks, the Magic should feel pretty good about their chances of winning.

Matthew Futterman writes in today's Wall Street Journal ("The Return of 'Chocolate Thunder'"):

During the past five seasons, Dwight Howard has amassed 1,062 dunks, 248 more than his closest competitor, according to Stats.

Mr. Howard's emergence is laced with irony, since he plays for a team that finished just 13th in the league in dunks this season. Without him, they would have had the second-lowest total in the NBA.

A review of dunking statistics from the past six seasons shows that dunks aren't a leading indicator of who wins and who loses in the NBA Finals. The 2002-03 New Jersey Nets, 2003-04 Lakers, 2004-05 Detroit Pistons, 2006-07 Cleveland Cavaliers and 2007-08 Lakers all had significant dunking advantages over their opponents in the finals, and they all lost.

The Lakers this season had 428 dunks, fourth-highest in the league, largely because defenders must chase Mr. Bryant on the outside, leaving his teammates open under the basket.

The lone exception is the 2005-06 Miami Heat, led by the nearly unstoppable, 325-pound center Shaquille O'Neal and the acrobatic Dwyane Wade. The Heat, who bested the Dallas Mavericks in the finals, led the NBA in dunks during the season with 499, tied for the highest total since 2002-03. Dunks accounted for 16.4% of the team's points, also tied for the highest in the past six seasons.

But the accomplishments of those one-season wonders are more than overshadowed by the Spurs, the most successful franchise of the past decade.

The Spurs won the title in 2003 despite converting just 322 dunks during the regular season, 10th in the NBA and 167 behind the Lakers' league-leading 489. Two years later, San Antonio won again with just 187 dunks, second-lowest in the league. In 2007, the Spurs won their fourth championship since 1999 with just 128 dunks, last in the NBA.

"You look at the Spurs and how they play with Tim Duncan, it's a very fundamental style," said Hall of Fame center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. "They didn't dunk a lot, but they got the ring."