Mid-Season Report
41 games in the books, 41 more to go. We're sitting at 25-16, projecting us to 50-32. While respectable, 50 wins is below the Spurs usual expectations of excellence; and in the overcrowded and competitive Western Conference, 50 wins will most likely get you into the bottom half of the playoff bracket. Not where Champions usually come from.
Clearly, we have some work to do. Let's review, shall we...
1. Health. The concerns coming into the season were Duncan's knees, and Ginobili's overall health. So far, both seem to be holding up quite well. Duncan, especially, looks great. He is moving as well as I've seen him move in the last few years. But that was the case last year. His knees did not start failing him until after the All-Star break, and it seemed to come on rather quickly. So I reserve assessment of this until the 4th quarter of the season.
Ginobili, while healthy, does look a step slow. Perhaps it's age and years of reckless playing catching up to him; perhaps he's still coming back from 2 years of frustration and inactivity. Either way, he seems to lack the explosion that defined his game for years. He's still great, getting by on intelligence and craftiness. But it is sad to see him unable to finish at the rim consistently and missing the acrobatic lay-ups he used to make with alarming consistency. Still, he's been on an upward trajectory the whole season; continuing that trend will go a long way in defining the team.
2. Tony. The real concern with health, as it turns out, is Tony Parker. Plantar Fasciitis is painful as hell and cripples quickness in a player. Parker is still playing well, but not nearly as well as we need. He can still get to the rim, but he's not finishing. How many easy buckets has he missed this year? Where is the tear drop?
The thought at the beginning of the season was that Tony was going to be the engine of the offense. It's clear now that that can not happen. He is not going to heal until the off-season, and he will continue to be inconsistent for the remainder. We can expect some great games from him, but we can also expect some lemons, especially in back-to-backs and short turnarounds. This is my biggest concern moving forward. I think it would be wise to limit Parker's minutes and even sit him out some games down the stretch.
3. Return To Defense. The defense has steadily improved throughout the season, but it's not where it needs to be. What's missing is the crunch-time defense of Championship years past. When we need stops, we're not getting them. Did you watch the end of the Jazz game? We were able to make some baskets and crawl back into the game; but we were never able to get that critical stop that might have turned the game or allowed us over the hump. To me, that's all about desire and intensity. Will we bring it in the second half of the season?
4. Roster Overhaul. This is probably the most disappointing aspect of the season thus far. We made all these moves in the offseason to match up with the league powers, and we're really getting nothing from them. Jefferson is struggling to find his role and often disappears for long stretches. We've seen glimpses of his athleticism on both ends of the floor, but he has yet to be a game changing force. McDyess is virtually a non-factor, being so impactless that he is losing his playing time to a rookie and small ball. The scouting report on him is that he is a second half player; I hope he gets the memo. Bogans has regressed to the mean and should get his playing time curtailed. Haislip has yet to play a meaningful minute. Ratliff has been solid and productive in his minutes, but we brought him here more as insurance, not to be a vital cog in the system.
All of those moves, and we're right back where we were the last two seasons: relying on the Big 3 and an increasingly ineffective spat of role players. With the trade deadline looming, it begs the question: do we have another move in us? Should we make another move?
5. The Youth Movement. In fact, our two most productive players outside of the Big 3 have probably been two of our youngest--George Hill (more on him later) and DeJuan Blair. Blair has been a revelation. He's still working through his rookie mistakes, and still learning the game and the system. But the man just understands basketball and the court in a way that can not be taught. He is a high-impact player; he makes things happen. He's no franchise centerpiece, but if he's your second big alongside Tim Duncan, you're doing alright.
Hairston didn't have the impact I had hoped, but we still have high hopes for him in the future.
6. George Hill. What's most impressive about George is his poise. He carries himself with the demeanor of a seasoned veteran who has been through hundreds of playoff battles. He is unflappable. He still has a lot to learn and improve upon, but with his athleticism, poise, defense, and intense will to compete and win, I trust him on the court in the endgame. Right now I would say he is our 4th most important player.
7. Chemistry/Rotation. Again, a bit of a disappointment. Our two big acquisitions seem to be having trouble fitting in. I fear that in trying to get more talented, we have sacrificed that thing that has made us so good for so many years, what Pop calls "corporate knowledge", that ability to play with each other and off each other with trust and precision, to orchestrate our offense and defense with a maestro's touch, all the pieces moving independently from each other but in perfect harmony, creating beauty from apparent randomness. How's that metaphor for you? We still have 41 more games to find it.
The rotation seems to be settling in nicely, though. It will be interesting to see how things shake out once Finley and Bonner return from their injuries.
8. Finley/Bonner/Mason, Jr. Bonner was having a productive year coming off the bench (a role better suited to him) until he got hurt. I think he still has value as a floor-stretching big off the bench, but only if he can knock down the three at a 40% clip. I feel like I haven't seen Finley in forever, but I don't know what his role will be. He can still shoot the lights out, but seems to be able to do much else at a championship level. Still, Pop trusts him. But does he trust him more that Hill now that Hill is playing so well? And I think Roger has fallen into our "microwave" role, instant offense off the bench. He is a fearless gunner, and you see Pop put him in when we need to score points in a hurry. I think his game is more well-rounded this year, but I also think more than anyone else, his minutes and spot in the rotation will be more dictated by needs than anything else.
9. The Rest of the West. We're in a dog fight. 11 teams are over .500 in the West. After the Lakers, there is a mess. There's really no telling how things will shake out. Hell, even the Lakers are vulnerable, if anybody in the West cares to step up. Dallas is playing quite well, but seem to be wildly inconsistent. Denver is playing well, but are one key injury or meltdown away from irrelevance. The Blazers are injured, but still competitive and scary. The Jazz own us. Phoenix seems to have fallen back to Earth, but are always dangerous with Nash and Stoudemire. New Orleans still has Chris Paul. The Thunder are good, young, and hungry. And even the Clippers and the Grizzlies are playing inspired basketball of late. No team is guaranteed into the playoffs yet. It's going to be a battle.
10. Road / Home. I feel like we let a great opportunity slip away from us by not winning more home games over the first half of the season. We had a very easy, front-loaded home schedule. And while we are a good 17-7 at home so far, I think we could have been better. We are in the midst of our last meaningful home stand, with games still left against Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Memphis and Denver. Every single one of these is a big game, and these next 5 home games will help set the tone for the second half of the season.
At 8-9 on the road, we're just not very good right now. And we need to get better in a hurry, because we have a tough road schedule ahead of us.
At the beginning of the year, I mentioned the ratio of road wins:home losses as a indicator of future success. Right now, we're +1 (8 road wins, 7 home losses). Of the 11 winning teams in the West, that is second worst, better only than the Clippers (-4). Dallas is +8, while the Lakers and Denver are both +6. In the East, Cleveland is a sizzling +14, Boston is +9, and Orlando is +8.
We have a lot of work to do. And the second half of the season gives us a lot of chances.
11. Finishing Strong. We're playing good, but not great. The schedule has been favorable for us, and we haven't fully taken advantage of it. From here on out, the competition gets tougher, and the schedule gets more demanding. We have to rise and meet the challenge head on. Playing the way we've been playing over the first half of the season will not net us another 25 wins in the second half of the season. It's time for our usual surge, our kick at the end of the race.
Can we do it? I don't know. As the cliche goes, that's why they play the games. As dispiriting as the first half of the season has been, there have been positive signs in the last few weeks, signs that we're starting to come together, starting to figure it out, and starting to trust each other and play winning basketball.
Regardless of outcome, I know where I'll be for the rest of the season: watching each game and cheering my ass off. Win or lose, the Spurs are my team, which makes them almost like family.
Go Spurs Go.
Clearly, we have some work to do. Let's review, shall we...
1. Health. The concerns coming into the season were Duncan's knees, and Ginobili's overall health. So far, both seem to be holding up quite well. Duncan, especially, looks great. He is moving as well as I've seen him move in the last few years. But that was the case last year. His knees did not start failing him until after the All-Star break, and it seemed to come on rather quickly. So I reserve assessment of this until the 4th quarter of the season.
Ginobili, while healthy, does look a step slow. Perhaps it's age and years of reckless playing catching up to him; perhaps he's still coming back from 2 years of frustration and inactivity. Either way, he seems to lack the explosion that defined his game for years. He's still great, getting by on intelligence and craftiness. But it is sad to see him unable to finish at the rim consistently and missing the acrobatic lay-ups he used to make with alarming consistency. Still, he's been on an upward trajectory the whole season; continuing that trend will go a long way in defining the team.
2. Tony. The real concern with health, as it turns out, is Tony Parker. Plantar Fasciitis is painful as hell and cripples quickness in a player. Parker is still playing well, but not nearly as well as we need. He can still get to the rim, but he's not finishing. How many easy buckets has he missed this year? Where is the tear drop?
The thought at the beginning of the season was that Tony was going to be the engine of the offense. It's clear now that that can not happen. He is not going to heal until the off-season, and he will continue to be inconsistent for the remainder. We can expect some great games from him, but we can also expect some lemons, especially in back-to-backs and short turnarounds. This is my biggest concern moving forward. I think it would be wise to limit Parker's minutes and even sit him out some games down the stretch.
3. Return To Defense. The defense has steadily improved throughout the season, but it's not where it needs to be. What's missing is the crunch-time defense of Championship years past. When we need stops, we're not getting them. Did you watch the end of the Jazz game? We were able to make some baskets and crawl back into the game; but we were never able to get that critical stop that might have turned the game or allowed us over the hump. To me, that's all about desire and intensity. Will we bring it in the second half of the season?
4. Roster Overhaul. This is probably the most disappointing aspect of the season thus far. We made all these moves in the offseason to match up with the league powers, and we're really getting nothing from them. Jefferson is struggling to find his role and often disappears for long stretches. We've seen glimpses of his athleticism on both ends of the floor, but he has yet to be a game changing force. McDyess is virtually a non-factor, being so impactless that he is losing his playing time to a rookie and small ball. The scouting report on him is that he is a second half player; I hope he gets the memo. Bogans has regressed to the mean and should get his playing time curtailed. Haislip has yet to play a meaningful minute. Ratliff has been solid and productive in his minutes, but we brought him here more as insurance, not to be a vital cog in the system.
All of those moves, and we're right back where we were the last two seasons: relying on the Big 3 and an increasingly ineffective spat of role players. With the trade deadline looming, it begs the question: do we have another move in us? Should we make another move?
5. The Youth Movement. In fact, our two most productive players outside of the Big 3 have probably been two of our youngest--George Hill (more on him later) and DeJuan Blair. Blair has been a revelation. He's still working through his rookie mistakes, and still learning the game and the system. But the man just understands basketball and the court in a way that can not be taught. He is a high-impact player; he makes things happen. He's no franchise centerpiece, but if he's your second big alongside Tim Duncan, you're doing alright.
Hairston didn't have the impact I had hoped, but we still have high hopes for him in the future.
6. George Hill. What's most impressive about George is his poise. He carries himself with the demeanor of a seasoned veteran who has been through hundreds of playoff battles. He is unflappable. He still has a lot to learn and improve upon, but with his athleticism, poise, defense, and intense will to compete and win, I trust him on the court in the endgame. Right now I would say he is our 4th most important player.
7. Chemistry/Rotation. Again, a bit of a disappointment. Our two big acquisitions seem to be having trouble fitting in. I fear that in trying to get more talented, we have sacrificed that thing that has made us so good for so many years, what Pop calls "corporate knowledge", that ability to play with each other and off each other with trust and precision, to orchestrate our offense and defense with a maestro's touch, all the pieces moving independently from each other but in perfect harmony, creating beauty from apparent randomness. How's that metaphor for you? We still have 41 more games to find it.
The rotation seems to be settling in nicely, though. It will be interesting to see how things shake out once Finley and Bonner return from their injuries.
8. Finley/Bonner/Mason, Jr. Bonner was having a productive year coming off the bench (a role better suited to him) until he got hurt. I think he still has value as a floor-stretching big off the bench, but only if he can knock down the three at a 40% clip. I feel like I haven't seen Finley in forever, but I don't know what his role will be. He can still shoot the lights out, but seems to be able to do much else at a championship level. Still, Pop trusts him. But does he trust him more that Hill now that Hill is playing so well? And I think Roger has fallen into our "microwave" role, instant offense off the bench. He is a fearless gunner, and you see Pop put him in when we need to score points in a hurry. I think his game is more well-rounded this year, but I also think more than anyone else, his minutes and spot in the rotation will be more dictated by needs than anything else.
9. The Rest of the West. We're in a dog fight. 11 teams are over .500 in the West. After the Lakers, there is a mess. There's really no telling how things will shake out. Hell, even the Lakers are vulnerable, if anybody in the West cares to step up. Dallas is playing quite well, but seem to be wildly inconsistent. Denver is playing well, but are one key injury or meltdown away from irrelevance. The Blazers are injured, but still competitive and scary. The Jazz own us. Phoenix seems to have fallen back to Earth, but are always dangerous with Nash and Stoudemire. New Orleans still has Chris Paul. The Thunder are good, young, and hungry. And even the Clippers and the Grizzlies are playing inspired basketball of late. No team is guaranteed into the playoffs yet. It's going to be a battle.
10. Road / Home. I feel like we let a great opportunity slip away from us by not winning more home games over the first half of the season. We had a very easy, front-loaded home schedule. And while we are a good 17-7 at home so far, I think we could have been better. We are in the midst of our last meaningful home stand, with games still left against Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Memphis and Denver. Every single one of these is a big game, and these next 5 home games will help set the tone for the second half of the season.
At 8-9 on the road, we're just not very good right now. And we need to get better in a hurry, because we have a tough road schedule ahead of us.
At the beginning of the year, I mentioned the ratio of road wins:home losses as a indicator of future success. Right now, we're +1 (8 road wins, 7 home losses). Of the 11 winning teams in the West, that is second worst, better only than the Clippers (-4). Dallas is +8, while the Lakers and Denver are both +6. In the East, Cleveland is a sizzling +14, Boston is +9, and Orlando is +8.
We have a lot of work to do. And the second half of the season gives us a lot of chances.
11. Finishing Strong. We're playing good, but not great. The schedule has been favorable for us, and we haven't fully taken advantage of it. From here on out, the competition gets tougher, and the schedule gets more demanding. We have to rise and meet the challenge head on. Playing the way we've been playing over the first half of the season will not net us another 25 wins in the second half of the season. It's time for our usual surge, our kick at the end of the race.
Can we do it? I don't know. As the cliche goes, that's why they play the games. As dispiriting as the first half of the season has been, there have been positive signs in the last few weeks, signs that we're starting to come together, starting to figure it out, and starting to trust each other and play winning basketball.
Regardless of outcome, I know where I'll be for the rest of the season: watching each game and cheering my ass off. Win or lose, the Spurs are my team, which makes them almost like family.
Go Spurs Go.
posted by secretchord53 at 10:30 AM
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