Monday, October 25, 2010

Don't Let the Sun Go Down on Me

Another season is here. All is right with the world again. We get one more year of Ginobili's brilliance, Parker's dazzling speed, Duncan's fundamental genius, and Pop's acerbic wit.

But for how long?

Here are the things I'll be watching for this season.

One Last Rodeo?

For the first time in a while it seems as if the Big 3 of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker are all starting the season completely healthy and sufficiently motivated. As the rest of the NBA knows, when those variables line up, all the Spurs do is win championships. Do we have one more in us? Or has the league already passed us by? Will outside factors make the season a non-starter. Parker is playing for a new contract, and while everybody is saying all the right things, the speculations of trades or where he's headed next year won't stop this season. For 2 straight years, Duncan has started the season hot, only to fade down the stretch as his body wears down. Why are we to believe it won't happen for a third year? Ginobili may be the most brilliant, reckless player in the league. But he can be fragile, and one injury could derail it all.

The opportunity for greatness is still there, but the margin of error is slimmer than it's ever been. And even though they say it every year, this really may be the last year of our holy triumvirate. So enjoy it, no matter the outcome.

4, 5, 6...

If our top 3 players butter the bread, somebody needs to bring the butter to the table. And the bread. Players 4-6 need to make an impact this year and carry some of the load for Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker.

Based on early indications, we might have our deepest team yet, players 1-6. Richard Jefferson is in his second year, which is when many players make the jump in the Spurs system. Couple that with the fact that he humbly submitted himself to Coach Pop boot camp this summer, and I have high hopes for him. Of all the players on the team, he is who I will be watching most closely for the first 10 or so games. George Hill should make another leap in his 3rd year, and will most likely replace Ginobili as our 6th man spark. And the beast, DeJuan Blair has been our best player in preseason and, having slimmed down and worked his ass off this summer, is ready for another round of revenge on the league that passed him by. I can't wait to watch these 3 play.

Don't Forget The Old Man

Antonio McDyess is also in his second year with the Spurs. And probably his last year in the league. He'll start out slow, but he'll come on strong heading into the playoffs, and he'll leave everything on the floor, as there may be no veteran out there who wants a ring more than him.

Te Amo, Tiago

Injuries have sidelined Tiago Splitter all preseason, which is a shame. There are a lot of expectations on the 25 year old rookie who has been playing professional basketball for a large chunk of his life. He needs to be a solid rotation player for us to compete in the West. So far, his NBA game is a complete mystery. I'm looking forward to unravelling that mystery.

A Do Run Run Run A Do Run Run

For the nth year in a row, Pop has said he wants to push the ball more. But for the 1st year ever, the team actually seems committed to doing it. With a roster that includes a stunning open floor passer in Ginobili, 2 high flying finishers in Hill and Jefferson, a young, athletic big man in Blair, and one of the 5 fastest players in the NBA, it only makes sense. As for Duncan? He's pretty good at the Unseldian outlet pass off the rebounds. Then hey, he doesn't have to even run down the floor.

Here's hoping it sticks into the regular season.

The First 20 Games Count as Much as the Last 20, Or So The Germans Would Have You Believe

We all know the Spurs script: slow start, build steam after the all-star break, peak into the playoffs. Well, with the West loaded with more good teams than Playoff spots, every win is going to count. Even the wins in November and December. Ginobili has openly lamented anywhere from 5-8 games he figures they could have won early in the season that they didn't. Those 5-8 games could have put us at the top of the West. The team seems determined to secure those 'should be' wins early. Plus, our early season schedule isn't all that difficult. It's not unreasonable that we could be 7-3 or better in our first 10 games.

Bruce Bowen Still Isn't Walking Through That Door; Neither Is Keith Bogans, Thankfully

Pop wants a shut down wing defender, if only as a back-up to Richard Jefferson. He also wants someone that can hit the corner 3. Is that player on the roster? Bobby Simmons, who made the team on an unguaranteed contract, seems committed to the role. But can he even be better than Keith Bogans?

By all accounts our defense was middling at best in the preseason. It wasn't great last year, either. Are we an elite defensive team anymore?

It's Time to Count Out the Spurs, Starting....NOW!

Finally, everyone in the media seems to be counting us out, since we haven't won a title in 3 years. Most still think we'll make the playoffs, but nobody thinks we can do any damage. Even though we beat them in the playoffs last year and probably improved more than they did, many are picking the Mavs over us in the Southwest.

Personally, I like this position. I like being under the radar, not discussed, with no pressure. By all statistical factors, we were a 57 win team last year that only won 50 games. I think we're better this year. And I want to prove everybody wrong.

The Lakers, Then...?

The Lakers are clearly the team to beat in the West, and are the best bet to win the West, no matter how you slice it. But who is second best? Who will face them in the Conference Finals?

Utah lost Boozer but gained Al Jefferson, and they're always good with Sloan at the helm. But they also always seem to fall just short of expectations. Phoenix lost A'mare and signed 23 small forwards. Portland can't seem to get out of its own way, and has more drama than the cast of "The Jersey Shore" (editorial note: I've never seen "The Jersey Shore"; I'm just guessing). Dallas is still Dallas, a 50+ win team that talks big and will lose in the Playoffs. Denver might not even have its best player in a month. Ditto Houston, but for different reasons. Oklahoma City is everybody's favorite team, and they should be really great. But the hardest jump to take in the league is from 50-win team to Championship team (I'm looking at you, Portland and New Orleans). Can they handle being favorites and no longer being everybody's favorite underdog?

Why couldn't the Spurs be the team that faces the Lakers in the Conference Finals? We certainly have the best coaching and the most experience of any other possible team. And once you get into the series, anything can happen.

The West is J-Lo; The East is Christina Hendricks

The West appears to have one great team (The Lakers), and lots of really good teams that could all win 50ish games. The East on the other hand, have seemingly 3 great teams at the top, (The Heat, Celtics, and Magic), and a lot of what looks like 30-win teams. It will be interesting to watch how each conference plays out.

Hey, Did You Hear this LeBron James Kid Signed with The Heat? I Hear it Was Kind of Big Deal

This has nothing to do with the Spurs (except the two times they play the Heat), but methinks this will be a very big story league-wide the entire year. Has any team ever faced so much scrutiny?

Go Spurs Go

Every season presents itself as its own narrative arc, with thousands of subplots, all leading to one grand finale. We can talk all we want about what we think will happen, but in the end, the old adage always wins out: that's why they play the game.

Now it's time to put on the ol' road Ginobili jersey and start screaming at the TV and/or computer.

The Spurs open the season at home against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night.

Go Spurs Go.

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