Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Sky is Falling

I've been derelict in my recapping duties. You might think it's because we suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the short-handed Lakers and pretty much signaled the death knell of the season. That's only partly the reason. Mainly, my computer is down again with a virus that I can't seem to get rid of. So I've had to call in the professionals, and they don't get here until Saturday. Luckily, I also got a spiffy new smart phone that allows me to surf the web and do such amazing things that I'm hesitant to call it a 'phone' because the percentage of time it actually gets used as a phone is approximately 1.7%. But said 'phone' has also kept me distracted from finding the time and resources to recap the Lakers game. But I'm here now, so let's get down to it.

The Richard Jefferson experiment is failing. I hesitate to use the word 'failure', even though by all accounts it is. But these things are fluid, and it's hard to judge the entirety of something until it's actually over. That's a nice way of saying there's still a chance that it could all click for Jefferson and he might drastically improve his game in a very short time frame. But I don't think anybody is expecting that to happen.

The thing that's so frustrating about Jefferson is that we weren't asking him to be the best version of himself. We had calibrated our expectations. At most, we were hoping for 75-80% of his best seasons. He could come to a team and be a fourth option, focus on defense and energy and winning. It was to be a dream come true.

And even with those diminished demands, he's disappointed. It would be one thing if he was just failing to make an impact, or was essentially an over-hyped and over-paid role player. But he hasn't even been that good this season. He's worse than a role player. He is actively making the team worse when he is on the floor. We are better off with just about anybody else on the court. (The real problem, of course, is that the Spurs don't technically have any other SFs on the roster). He can't make an open jump shot to save his life; when he gets to the rim, he finds new and creative ways to miss dunks or turn the ball over; he blows so many defensive assignments that he gets yanked out of games within the first 2 minutes. He's rattled, totally devoid of confidence. It seems he is untradeable; but is he unbenchable? Would benching him admit to failure and a waste of money?

Of course, there are bigger problems with the team, and more and more everyday it looks like a lost season. Can anybody honestly say with any confidence that this Spurs team can compete with any other top 10 team in the West in a playoff series? We're 2-2 on the road trip, already losing the 2 'statement' games, with the 3rd looming. At this point, I'm sure no one expects to win against the Nuggets in Denver. Did anyone expect to see the day when the Nuggets were the better and more cohesive team?

It feels like we're at a turning point, not only for the season and the franchise, but for the legacy of Tim Duncan. How do we proceed in the immediate future and in the long-term? Graydon Gordian over at 48MoH has given voice to the words that no fan really wants to hear or say: it's time to start rebuilding.

Go read the article; it's wonderful. He makes a strong case. And if you're worried about failing, there's a precedent, and a great example in our very own conference:

The Los Angeles Lakers.

After the disastrous 2004 finals in which the Pistons humiliated the Lakers, the team made the bold move of trading away Shaquille O'Neal, arguably there most important player in winning championships. They started building around Kobe Bryant. For the first few years, it was bad. Shaq won another title in Miami; the Lakers virtually lost a season with the Tomjanovich debacle and a Kobe injury. They had no other championship players, they were wasting Kobe's prime, and most people seriously doubted that Kobe would ever make it back to the Finals, let alone win another.

And then it all changed, with one improbable trade. With the arrival of Gasol, the Lakers became a great team. It's amazing what the addition of one great player can do to a team. Kobe gets another top-tier player. Everybody else gets to move down one notch, so Lamar Odom suddenly doesn't have to be the second best player on the team, but can be the versatile third option that is a match-up nightmare for other teams; Andrew Bynum can be brought along slowly and allowed to blossom; players like Luke Walton and Sascha Vujacic can move to the bench where there skills can be put to good use and their weaknesses diminished.

With a couple of years of patience and one bold move, the Lakers became the best team in the Western Conference once again. Obviously, the situation in San Antonio is different. Duncan is further along in his career; San Antonio isn't a hot free agent destination if the Spurs aren't winning Championships. But the front office has managed the cap well, and they do have some good trading assets as well as a couple of really good young players. With some patience, intelligence, and a bit of luck, the Spurs could easily be back in Championship contention in a few years.

But it would most likely mean sacrificing this year and probably the next. And there would be no guarantees that we'd ever get back. Given how poorly this season has gone, that doesn't seem like such a risk. But it would mean giving up on this team as we know it, and rebuilding the character of the team as well as the roster.

I don't know what the right answer is, but a time of reckoning is coming. We're either going to definitively close the book on an era and watch as a Dynasty crumbles to dust, permanently remanded to history books and our memories; or we're going to continue to rage against the dying of light, refusing to go gently into that good night.

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