Something Something Rodeo Road Trip Something
Tonight's game against Sacramento marks the first game of the fabled Rodeo Road Trip. We all know what this means for the Spurs. This is when we "turn the corner" and "come together as a team" which will inevitably lead to our "second half surge".
The thing is, we have played extremely well on these trips with surprising consistency. And it has often been a harbinger of things to come. The question is: is that true for this year's team?
Yes and no. It is very possible that we'll have a great road trip and it will springboard us into a strong close to the season and into the playoffs. The talent on the team can not be ignored, and perhaps all the calls for patience and trust in the process of growth were spot on. It's also possible that we have a poor road trip for the first time and continue our average play for the remainder. But there is one other possibility that we should keep our eye on: that we have a successful road trip and that it doesn't lead to anything of substance.
This last premise all depends on how we define "successful".
Let's take a look at the schedule. The trip this year consists of 8 games:
2/3 @ Sacramento
2/4 @ Portland
2/6 @ LA Clippers
2/8 @ LA Lakers
2/11 @ Denver
(All-Star Break)
2/17 @ Indiana
2/19 @ Philadelphia
2/21 @ Detroit
The first thing that stands out is that this isn't a terribly difficult schedule. We only have one back-to-back; we have an extended stay in one place (Los Angeles); we have 2 days off between our 2 most difficult games (Lakers and Nuggets); and we only play 3 teams currently over .500.
The common perception of the Spurs' season is that the team is inconsistent. In a sense, that's true. From play to play, quarter to quarter, half to half, we can be. But our record is anything but. Consider:
--We are effectively in a 3-way tie with Portland and Phoenix for the 9th best record in the entire league right now. Our record against teams that are tied or ahead of us: 3-12. Our record against the 19 teams below us: 24-7.
--Let's split it right down the center. Our record against the 15 best teams in the league: 8-15. Our record against the 15 worst teams: 19-4.
--One more for you. Our record against plus-.500 teams: 11-19. Our record against sub-.500 teams: 16-0.
To me, this is the model of consistency. We beat the teams we should and lose to the teams we shouldn't. Doesn't get any simpler than that.
Now let's look at the road trip again. 5 games against sub-.500 teams, 3 against plus-.500 teams who are also tied or ahead of us in the standings. If we maintain the status quo, we'll most likely go 5-3 on the road trip, which on the surface looks like a good record.
But I contend that the success of the road trip should be measured in how we perform in those 3 games against Portland, the Lakers, and Denver. In my mind, we have to win at least one of those games and we need to win at least 2. If we hold court against the other 5, that can put us at 6-2 or 7-1, which would be a superb Rodeo Road Trip.
But what if we win 2 or even 3 of those big games, but lose one or two against the poorer teams? That could put our record for the trip at 5-3 or 4-4. But the trip should still be considered a success if we can get some wins against the better teams, even if we lose a game or two to some bad teams.
That's why we can't look strictly at the record; we have to consider the opponent. The success of the trip should be measured in our quality of play, especially against the very good teams we will be facing in the next few weeks. The Spurs can finish the road trip 5-3, and that could be either extremely frustrating or extremely gratifying.
Let's hope for gratifying. And let's hope it does springboard us into that "surge" we've all heard so much about.
The thing is, we have played extremely well on these trips with surprising consistency. And it has often been a harbinger of things to come. The question is: is that true for this year's team?
Yes and no. It is very possible that we'll have a great road trip and it will springboard us into a strong close to the season and into the playoffs. The talent on the team can not be ignored, and perhaps all the calls for patience and trust in the process of growth were spot on. It's also possible that we have a poor road trip for the first time and continue our average play for the remainder. But there is one other possibility that we should keep our eye on: that we have a successful road trip and that it doesn't lead to anything of substance.
This last premise all depends on how we define "successful".
Let's take a look at the schedule. The trip this year consists of 8 games:
2/3 @ Sacramento
2/4 @ Portland
2/6 @ LA Clippers
2/8 @ LA Lakers
2/11 @ Denver
(All-Star Break)
2/17 @ Indiana
2/19 @ Philadelphia
2/21 @ Detroit
The first thing that stands out is that this isn't a terribly difficult schedule. We only have one back-to-back; we have an extended stay in one place (Los Angeles); we have 2 days off between our 2 most difficult games (Lakers and Nuggets); and we only play 3 teams currently over .500.
The common perception of the Spurs' season is that the team is inconsistent. In a sense, that's true. From play to play, quarter to quarter, half to half, we can be. But our record is anything but. Consider:
--We are effectively in a 3-way tie with Portland and Phoenix for the 9th best record in the entire league right now. Our record against teams that are tied or ahead of us: 3-12. Our record against the 19 teams below us: 24-7.
--Let's split it right down the center. Our record against the 15 best teams in the league: 8-15. Our record against the 15 worst teams: 19-4.
--One more for you. Our record against plus-.500 teams: 11-19. Our record against sub-.500 teams: 16-0.
To me, this is the model of consistency. We beat the teams we should and lose to the teams we shouldn't. Doesn't get any simpler than that.
Now let's look at the road trip again. 5 games against sub-.500 teams, 3 against plus-.500 teams who are also tied or ahead of us in the standings. If we maintain the status quo, we'll most likely go 5-3 on the road trip, which on the surface looks like a good record.
But I contend that the success of the road trip should be measured in how we perform in those 3 games against Portland, the Lakers, and Denver. In my mind, we have to win at least one of those games and we need to win at least 2. If we hold court against the other 5, that can put us at 6-2 or 7-1, which would be a superb Rodeo Road Trip.
But what if we win 2 or even 3 of those big games, but lose one or two against the poorer teams? That could put our record for the trip at 5-3 or 4-4. But the trip should still be considered a success if we can get some wins against the better teams, even if we lose a game or two to some bad teams.
That's why we can't look strictly at the record; we have to consider the opponent. The success of the trip should be measured in our quality of play, especially against the very good teams we will be facing in the next few weeks. The Spurs can finish the road trip 5-3, and that could be either extremely frustrating or extremely gratifying.
Let's hope for gratifying. And let's hope it does springboard us into that "surge" we've all heard so much about.
posted by secretchord53 at 11:45 AM
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