Friday, October 30, 2009

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Opening night was the good. Last night was the bad and the ugly.

We have to expect games like last night, especially early in the season. Nights where everything seems discombobulated and players seem lost and unsure about where to go and what to do. We have more talent than we've ever had before; but we have a lack of system knowledge, of chemistry that can be achieved only by getting the reps in. Don't worry; it will come. Losses like last night's help us to understand where our weaknesses are what to focus on moving forward.

What I Liked:

--Tim Duncan. That was a monster game. 28 points and 16 rebounds, with 2 steals, 2 assists, and 3 blocks thrown in for good measure. His bank shot was unstoppable last night, and he was playing some good D. He looked spry. Let's hope this is the Duncan we can expect this season.

--George Hill's D. He is a very good defender, with greatness within his reach. He can sometimes get lost going around screens. And his ball denial defense isn't as good as Bowen's was (Bowen's specialty, really). But he is an outstanding one-on-one defender. He likes to pick up his man early and pester him with every step and every dribble. And he is great at picking the pocket of the opposing player. He had two fantastic steals last night.

--Richard Jefferson. Yes, he's shooting horribly. Yes, he seems a bit lost in our schemes. But he's already showing one of the reasons why we went out and got him: he is a dynamic offensive player. Several times last night he drove the ball into the lane, drawing fouls and collapsing the defense. This is what we need him for on offense. He's probably pressing too much early on, as is to be expected for a new player coming into a new system. But once he figures things out and gets more relaxed and comfortable, he will be a deadly player for us.

--The defense. The score belies it, and we didn't finish the defensive sequences by securing the rebounds, but we played solid D last night, forcing them into some tough shots and keeping their FG% to 41.7%. That is a championship number.

What I Didn't Like:

--The energy. With the exception of Duncan, we looked very flat last night. Tony, especially, looked bored or exhausted or both. I've talked before about how important it is for him to get off to a good start. If he doesn't, he oftentimes checks out of the game. It seemed like he did that last night. But he's not the only one guilty of it. Everybody looked tired and out of sorts.

--The shooting. Ugh. We shot horribly, especially from long distance. Most of our shots seemed to fall short, which to me is an indication of tired legs. I guess we're not in game condition yet, ready to play back-to-backs against young, hungry teams. That's fine. But our shot selection also seemed poor. We were shooting too many contested shots, not making the extra pass to get to the wide open player, or taking the time to drive and dish to create the space. We weren't shooting within our offense.

--The rebounding. Um, yeah. We couldn't secure a defensive rebound to save our lives. They had 19 second chance points in the first half, and we're up by 1 at halftime. Think about that. If we'd just secured our defensive rebounds, we could have had a double digit lead at halftime. This one concerns me the most, because it hearkens back to last year. This is one of the main dangers of starting Bonner, as he is not a great defender. It puts too much pressure on Duncan to protect the rim and secure the board.

--15:13. That was our assist to TO ratio. 13 isn't a horrible TO number, but 15 assists is bad. It means we weren't moving the ball, and weren't executing our offense. Which means we were probably lazy and tired and not willing to take the necessary steps to get the good shots.

There are lots of other things to look at negatively in this game, but it's only the second game of the season. I'm going to allow the newer players time to adjust to the system, and assume they will get it. I'm going to allow Blair a rookie learning curve and not expect double-doubles out of him every night. This was one game, early in the season, against a team that could very well turn out to be very good this year. Chalk it up to experience and move on.

Looking Forward:

We play Sacramento at home on Saturday. Sacramento looks to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year. That being said, we need to have a strong showing, do our work early, and not get dragged into a close game. Last year we won a lot of too-close-for-comfort games against inferior opponents. This year, we need to control these games from tip to buzzer. I expect a strong showing from our guys being back at home coming off a tough first loss.

Look for Parker to get going early and often. Look for our defense to be locked in and feisty. Look for better shooting and better shot selection. Keep an eye on the rotation and see who gets the minutes. Will Hill continue to earn more minutes off the bench? Will Finley and Bonner stay as the starters? Keep an eye on Jefferson and McDyess as they continue to learn the system and get comfortable in it.

After Saturday's game, we're off until next Thursday, when we start a vicious back-to-back, at Utah, then at Portland on Friday night.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

And Like That *POOF* The Beard Is Gone

Oh, boy, that was a fun game. After a slow start in which the offense looked totally discombobulated, we rattled off back to back 30+ point quarters en route to a 113-96 victory over the Hornets that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. There were 2 surprises to start out the game: Michael Finley and Matt Bonner. I had theorized in an earlier post that Bonner might get the start over McDyess, though I was skeptical. But there he was. I understand the Bonner start in terms of the frontcourt rotation. Bonner is a good big to play with Duncan because he stretches the floor, and Duncan can negate some of his defensive deficiencies. Also, starting with Bonner allows Blair to get more playing time with McDyess, thus giving us one veteran, defensive big on the floor at all times.

But Finley starting is a bit of a shock. I didn't think Manu would get the start, but I was sure it would be Mason, Jr. Apparently Finley won the starting job with an awesome training camp. Good for him. Finley is a proud player, and having him start is a boon to his confidence and, in turn his shooting. As long as Mason, Jr. is effective coming off the bench, I'm okay with Finley starting. I think Mason, Jr.'s issues are more related to what we ask him to do than his spot in the rotation.

I do feel that as we move into the postseason, we will not be able to start both Bonner and Finley. But that is a ways down the line.

There's a lot to like about this game, so let's get into it.

What I liked:

--GINOBILI!!! He had a great Ginobili game. Some scoring (16 points), some playmaking (4 assists), a steal that led to a fastbreak, some herky jerky acrobatic drives, some outside shooting, and a team high +17.

--Balanced offense. Of the 10 players that played more than 5 minutes, 6 scored in double digits (though none over 20). 3 more scored 9. That's 9 of 10 players right around double digit scoring. The one player who didn't get close: Richard Jefferson, due mostly to cold shooting. We never had stat lines like that last year. Everyone on the floor is a threat to score. And our offense looked fantastic. Great spacing, great passing, making the extra pass, tremendous shooting, playing inside-out, getting offensive boards and second chance points. We were getting wide open 3 point shots, and that is usually a function of a smooth running offense. It was fun watching us play tonight.

--The rotation. 10 players cracked 18+ minutes. Nobody went over 30. Hill backed up Parker, Ginobili backed up Finley, Mason, Jr. backed up Jefferson, McDyess backed up Bonner, and Blair backed up Duncan. At times it was almost like a first team/second team thing. Rotations rarely go ten players deep, but in an effort to curtail the minutes of the "Big 3", I think we'll see a lot of this, especially early in the season.

--The young guys. Blair was as good as advertised. He could be our garbage man, getting all the loose balls and cheap putbacks he wants. He is a tremendous rebounder. Part of it is will and determination, which he has in spades. But a big part of being a great rebounder is understanding spacing and where to be, and Blair has that ability innately. This also translates well to his offensive game, as he worked himself into wide open position for easy layups on a couple of plays just by being in the right place at the right time.

And Hill was just great. He finished with 9 points, 4 assists, and 0 turnovers. But he ran the offense smoothly and confidently. Two plays stand out to me. First, in the 2nd quarter he was bringing the ball up the court and saw Mason, Jr. on the left wing behind the 3 point line. He drilled the ball to him, and Mason, Jr. immediately stepped into a rhythm 3 point and nailed it. I believe these were Roger's first points of the night, and allowed him to ease into the game. That's what a PG is supposed to do. Second, in the 3rd quarter, the Spurs were waiting to inbound the ball. One of the bigs was supposed to inbound to Hill, but nobody was back with Hill to get him the ball. The cameras caught him yelling, getting the attention of McDyess, and directing where he was supposed to be. Again, a very little thing, but this demonstrates his blossoming confidence and command of the team.

--The Bench. Our bench seems like it will have it's own identity this year. It can push the tempo a bit, and it has excellent athleticism with Hill, Blair, and Ginobili, not to mention great shooting with McDyess and Mason, Jr. Our bench actually extended the lead tonight, and our best +/- numbers came for the reserve players.

What I Didn't Like:

--The defense. It's hard to nitpick too much in such a great opening game. But after allowing only 13 points in the opening quarter, we surrendered quarters of 26, 29, and 28. That's too many points. Granted, we can score better now. But I'd still like to see us shoot for the goal of 22 points a quarter, 88 points a game. Our defense didn't look particularly horrible, it just didn't clamp down like I wanted. That's as much a function of incorporating new players as anything else, and I expect it to improve as the season goes along.

--Popovich's clean shaven face. His beard was bad ass, and now it's gone.

Looking Forward:

Thursday night we play the Bulls in Chicago, meaning we start the season with a back-to-back. The second nights of back-to-backs haven't always been kind to our old teams, but let's see how we handle it. No one played more than 30 minutes, so most players should be fresh. And we're no longer the AARP team, so hopefully the quick turnaround won't hurt us like it has in the past.

For the Bulls, it is their opening night, at home, on National TV, so look for them to be very energetic. They are a young team with an emerging star at PG that gave the injured Celtics all they could handle in last year's playoffs. They lost their best scorer off that team (Ben Gordon), so it'll be interesting to see where the points come from and how Rose steps up in his second season.

On the Spurs end, pay attention to the rotation, and if we go 10-deep again in an a first team/second team style. Watch to see if the D improves. Keep watching the young guys and the new guys as they continue their integration into the team. And see if our bench can be the catalyst for another win, either taking or extending leads.

The game is the first game of a doubleheader on TNT.

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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Mirror, Mirror, On the Wall, Who is the Fairest Team of Them All?

I don't much care for making predictons, other than this: The Spurs will finish the season 98-0.

On our march towards immortality, here are some things to watch...

Heads, Shoulders, Knees and Ankles (Knees and Ankles)

Nothing is more critical to the upcoming season than Duncan's knees and Ginobili's ankles. With a healthy team we can compete with anybody; without it, we have no chance. Popovich recognizes this, and will never sacrifice the war to win a battle.

Tony! Toni! Tone!

Despite how hard Pop and the entire Spurs fan base has been on Tony Parker, he has gotten better every year and is a bona fide star and game changer in this league. Last year was his best year statistically, partly out of necessity. This year he will have an unheard of level of control over the offense, and is definitively the focal point of the team on that end of the court. How will he handle it? Will he raise the level of his game another notch yet again?

Do You Remember the Time?

Last year we slipped from our perch atop the defensive totem pole. We were still a good defensive team, but not a great one. It's a tired cliche, but it rings true: Defense wins championships. Defense has always been our bedrock. Pop has promised a return to form. Will we get there?

I Want a New Drug, One That Does What it Should

Reading the writing on the wall and observing the escalating arms race, the Spurs went out and got some brand new players, infusing the roster with more talent than it's ever had before. We've always hewed to the "Big 3" philosophy, but times are a changing. We still have the Big 3, but we also have a proven star in this league in Jefferson and a very talented veteran in McDyess. Will these players be able to find their role on the team? I'm especially interested in seeing how Jefferson fits in. He's been saying and doing all the right things, but is he comfortable being a fourth option on a team? Will he accept the thankless task of guarding the best wing players in the league and not getting as many shots and points as he's used to?

Youth is Wasted on the Young

After years of bellyaching about our team being "old as dirt", suddenly we have some youth. No one doubts that the infusion of energy and athleticism will do us good. But one of our great strengths has always been our veteran savvy, and our refusal to ever beat ourselves. Are we sacrificing too much corporate knowledge at the altar of youth? Will the youngsters be able to earn and keep Pop's trust? When push comes to shove, will Hairston possibly see minutes over Finley or Bogans? Will Blair earn burn over Ratliff or Bonner?

The Summer of George

All we've heard and read about since the beginning of summer was how good George Hill looked, and how he was Pop's favorite player on the team, and what a leap he's made. Is this true? Will this translate once the lights are turned on? If so, we will have our best backup PG in a long time, not to mention a great defender at both guard positions. George's development could be the tipping point of our team and season.

I Was Just Guessing at Numbers and Figures

We've added a lot of new, proven players. How will they fit in? Will they be able to integrate to the system? It usually takes a full year to completely understand the Spurs system, but Popovich has simplified it in the hopes of getting everybody up to speed quicker. Will it work? We've always relied on a proven hierarchy and outstanding chemistry. Will it still be there? And what will the rotation be, and how long will Pop tinker? Last year we never really settled into a comfortable rotation (a lot of that owing to injuries), and I think it messed with our rhythm and chemistry. Keep an eye on how Pop works the rotation as the season progresses.

It's Always the Quiet Ones

There is (rightfully) a lot of focus on the Big 3, the health, the new guys, and the young guys. But don't forget about Bonner, Mason, Jr., and Finley. Their abilities may be limited, but they all fill a vital need on this team: shooting, particularly 3-point shooting. There will come a time late in the season, possibly in the playoffs, where a made 3-pointer is going to determine a win or a loss, and there's a very good chance one of those 3 players will be taking that shot. They need to know their role, be comfortable in their role, and be unafraid to take and make that shot.

How the West Was Won

Everybody and their sister predict that the Lakers are coming out of the West. All those people also predict that they will meet the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. But don't sleep on the other dangerous teams in the league. The Blazers probably have the deepest roster of talent in the West, even if half the team still can't legally drink; Chris Paul and David West are still nightmare match-ups for us, even if the rest of their team is filled out with rec league players; the Mavericks might be good this year (or complete crap), but they always give us their best shot; Denver is the most volatile team in the league, who can go on a ridiculous hot streak at any time; and Utah is still coached by one of the very best and play with exacting precision and brute force. There are no foregone conclusions in the Western Conference.

Home Sweet Home; On the Road Again

Are schedule is front-loaded with home games and back-loaded with road games. We've always been one of the best road teams in the NBA, but our home record has been slipping as of late. We need to protect our home court, especially with so many early season home guys in which we'll be trying to figure things out. The ratio of Road Wins:Home Losses is one of the more telling stats and a great indicator of future success, so keep an eye on that number.

It's Not How You Start, It's How You Finish

But in this case, it's also how you start. We've always been strong finishers. And Pop has never been afraid of a loss if it helps build towards something greater. But our schedule being what it is, we have to take advantage of our early season home games and make sure that we're not giving away mid-December games at home to the likes of the Timberwolves or Clippers. We have a lot of personnel and playing time issues to figure out, and we need to pace ourselves; but we also need Wins.

Don't Know What You Got Till It's Gone

We're spoiled as Spurs fans, especially those of us that have been fans only in the last decade or so. Our team has always been good, we've always competed for titles, we've always been professional and likable, and we've been able to watch one of the greatest players ever. But Duncan is heading into the twilight of his career, and no matter how smart our front office is, once Duncan's gone, so is the dynasty. I have no doubt that we'll still be very good and will still compete fiercely, but championships are generally won on the backs of all-time great players.

I didn't really notice when we won in 1999. I watched and rooted casually in 2003. I saw Fisher's .04 in '04, and it hurt, but it didn't stick with me. In 2005 i watched every second of the Finals, agonizing after Games 3 and 4, unable to sleep in the off days, jumping off my couch when Horry saved Game 5, and running up and down my street after pulling out Game 7. In 2006, I felt my heart leap with Ginobili's 3 and then break with his foul. In 2007, I watched every second of the entire playoffs--Nash's bloody nose, Horry's hip check--as we methodically marched through the playoffs to our 4th title. By 2008 I was following most regular season games and watching all of the nationally televised ones. I sat motionless, unable to speak, feeling as if I'd just been dumped when we blew 2 huge leads to the Lakers and had another game slip away on a no-call. Last season I started watching every game of the regular season and following the team regularly on several different Internet sites. I started writing for this site just before the playoffs, and cheered on our hobbled team as they gallantly fought the odds and injuries fighting against them.

I realize that we only have a few years left of the Duncan era, and I don't want to miss a single moment. I wish I had followed the team more closely earlier. I wish I had a clearer memory of Duncan's masterpiece in Game 6 of the 2003 Finals. I wish I remember the Memorial Day Miracle. I wish I remember seeing Robinson in his prime.

So be thankful for your Spurs team, and enjoy them. Enjoy Parker's continued ascent; enjoy the mad genius of our favorite Argentine; enjoy Pop's brilliance, ingenuity, and self-deprecation; and enjoy rooting for one of the greatest players AND teammates ever. Cherish the wins, mourn the losses, but mostly, revel in and appreciate the journey.

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NBA Tip-Off

The season officially gets under way tonight with Cleveland and Boston in what could most likely be a preview of the eastern conference finals (with all due respect to Orlando). There are 4 games on the schedule tonight, the Rockets at the Blazers being the most interesting to this Portland-dweller. The Blazers come into this season with ridiculously high expectations and the Rockets with almost none. I'm worried that the Blazers might not live up to those expectations; but outside of the Spurs, there is no team I watch or enjoy more.

The Spurs season kicks off tomorrow, and I hope to be back later tonight with a more comprehensive preview. Of note, David Thorpe was the only ESPN analyst who picked us to win the west and to win it all. Good. I don't like being the favorite.

I don't normally like to shill for things, but if you're a serious hoops junkie and/or live outside of the SA area and don't get local coverage of the Spurs, I highly recommend getting the NBA Broadband League Pass. For $150 ($135 for the next week or so) you can watch EVERY NBA game this season on your computer, save for any games on National TV or in your local coverage area. So living in Portland, I don't get any of the Blazers games, because I can watch them on TV. But i'll get to watch every Spurs game that isn't on National TV. Also, you can rewatch the game later if you miss it for any reason. And you can watch any other game that looks interesting. I like to keep an eye on scores, and if I see a game is close at the end, I'll usually watch the last few minutes to see how it plays out. It really is a fantastic deal and a way to stay connected with your favorite team and the league.

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Sunday, October 25, 2009

New York Times 'Fascinated' by 'Revitalized' Spurs

The New York Times doesn't come to mind when one thinks of sports writing, let alone coverage of the NBA. When it comes to pro basketball, the Times is very much a regional paper, favoring stories about the Knicks and Nets first and foremost.

Which is why I was so pleasantly surprised by Howard Beck's NBA Preview ("Adding Powerful Talent, Top Teams Flex Muscles") in today's paper. While it claims to be a league preview, Beck's primary focus is on our favorite team.
On June 23, Richard Jefferson, a standout forward who averaged 19.6 points last season, was traded from Milwaukee to San Antonio for a package of nominal players. The Bucks’ decision was mostly financial — they had to shed Jefferson’s $14.2 million salary to avoid paying the luxury tax. The Spurs’ decision was purely competitive — they needed Jefferson’s talents to help win a championship.

When the accounting was complete, Jefferson found himself surrounded by All-Stars and championship rings, nestled in a lineup featuring Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

“Basketball heaven,” Jefferson said after practice last week in San Antonio.

The deal energized Jefferson and instantly revitalized the Spurs dynasty, which had grown creaky. It served as another stinging setback for the Bucks. And it symbolized a potentially troubling new trend for the N.B.A., which opens its season Tuesday night.

This is the year the rich got richer, while nearly everyone else gave up.

Having obtained Jefferson, the Spurs then signed Antonio McDyess, Keith Bogans and Theo Ratliff, giving them a fantastically deep bench.

Team executives said they could not recall a summer quite like this, as every elite team added elite talent.

No one doubts the significance of the trend, the Spurs included. “I think it’s something that the powers that be in the league have noticed,” said Gregg Popovich, the Spurs’ coach and team president.

The most important statistic this season may not be shooting efficiency or rebounding rate but payroll size.

The Spurs are a fascinating, and revealing, case study. They are renowned as smart spenders, winning four titles since 1999 with a payroll that generally fell in the middle of the pack. They have exceeded the tax threshold three times, but by less than $1 million in each case. The Spurs built a dynasty by surrounding their stars with low-wage role players.

But the model no longer seemed viable after the Spurs — with injuries to Duncan and Ginobili — lost in the first round last spring. Team officials faced the realization that, even healthy, they no longer had enough talent to contend.

The trend perhaps began two seasons ago, when the Celtics obtained Garnett and Allen and the Lakers obtained Gasol. All were acquired in financially driven transactions. “All of a sudden, you couldn’t compete with two or three significant players anymore,” said R. C. Buford, the Spurs’ general manager. “You had to have a roster with at least four very significant players to even be competitive.”

Duncan is 33, and the franchise is determined to maximize his remaining years as an elite player. So the conservative Spurs joined the arms race.

“It’s out of character for us,” Duncan said. “But what is in character is them wanting to put a team together that’s going to have a chance to win.”

So Jefferson became a Spur, Shaq joined LeBron, Vince joined Dwight, and the gap between the talent-rich and the talent-poor grew into a grand canyon, almost overnight.

There are a few teams with great talent and more moderate payrolls: Portland, Atlanta and Denver. “But when you talk championship or bust, there’s only those five elite teams,” the ESPN commentator Jalen Rose said in reference to the Lakers, the Spurs, the Cavaliers, the Celtics and the Magic.

Is it a sign of things to come? A dangerous trend? Perhaps not. The Spurs, like the Magic and Cavaliers, are a small-market team. Popovich is the first to say that the new model is not sustainable.

“I don’t know if it’s a problem for the league,” he said, “but I think for a certain number of teams it’s going to be a flash in the pan.”

In the meantime, Jefferson will enjoy his little slice of heaven and go to sleep dreaming of championship rallies on the Riverwalk.

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Friday, October 23, 2009

Simmons on Spurs, Duncan

ESPN's Bill Simmons has published his annual NBA Preview. In typical Simmons fashion, it is a list of the 33 most intriguing figures for the upcoming season. Two Spurs make appearances on the list. #33 is Manu Ginobili, saying what we've all been saying for months: without a healthy Manu, nothing else really matters. #2 is Tim Duncan, and I encourage you to read the whole thing.

At the end of the Duncan section, he writes this:

I am a Spurs junkie. I love reading about them. I love the way they put their rosters together and value chemistry so deeply. I love the way they interact during games (as I've written many times). I just get a kick out of them. And the truth is, this might be their last chance for a dominant season with Tim Duncan leading the way.

I think it happens. If only because great basketball players have a habit of somehow finding that one great team. They are my pick to win in 2010. Convincingly.


Needless to say, Simmons is picking the Spurs to win the 2010 title (over his beloved Celtics in 6). I hope he's right.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Poll: Who will make the Spurs' final roster?

As the Spurs get ready to begin their march towards a fifth NBA Title, we say goodbye to those who have departed: Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Jacque Vaughn and Drew Gooden. We wish them the best of luck in the next chapter of their lives.

We also wholeheartedly welcome the changes made by the Spurs during the offseason.
"I just think it’s a different time in the organization’s growth," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "Sometimes, we’ve only needed pieces going into the summertime. We needed something different this summer."

"We’re very excited, very curious to see what we’ve got," point guard Tony Parker told the Express-News. "We’ve been playing with the same team for a lot of years. It’s nice to have new blood."
The new blood Tony refers to? Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, Theo Ratliff, DeJuan Blair, Marcus Haislip (forward), Curtis Jerrells, and Keith Bogans.

This gives the Spurs 17 players, but there can only be 15, which brings us to this week's poll.

Who will make the Spurs' final roster?
(choose 15)
Tim Duncan
Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Roger Mason Jr.
Michael Finley
George Hill
Matt Bonner
Ian Mahinmi
Marcus Williams
Malik Hairston
Richard Jefferson
Antonio McDyess
Theo Ratliff
DeJuan Blair
Marcus Haislip
Curtis Jerrells
Keith Bogans
See Results

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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Opening night...

...is one week away. Hallelujah.

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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Starting line-up?

The Spurs open against the New Orleans Hornets on Oct 28th. What will the starting line-up be on that night?

There are 2 positions that are unequivocally locked in: Point Guard and whatever position it is we assign to Tim Duncan. Power Forward or Center, it doesn't really matter. Tim will start, and he'll be our main big man. Point Guard, obviously, is the other position without challenge. Tony Parker will be our starting PG.

I think we can assume with great certainty that Richard Jefferson will be our starting small forward. We didn't throw away our cap flexibility for the next two years, go into the luxury tax, and go "all in" at the table to get a bench player.

The other two positions are more clouded, and by extension, more interesting. Our starting "center" will probably be Antonio McDyess (and probably should be). There doesn't seem to be much challenge on the roster to him. Matt Bonner did better than expected work last year, but is best used in a reserve role for an offensive punch; Theo Ratliff can still be a monster protecting the rim, but is too limited offensively and shouldn't be playing starter minutes; DeJuan Blair is showing amazing signs in training camp, but there's no way in hell Pop is starting a rookie. We're set up to have a great big man rotation, but McDyess looks like the clear favorite to start. The only reason I hesitate is because he has been used primarily as a sixth man for the last few years in Detroit and excelled at the role and accepted it with grace and dignity, much like Ginobili always has. So it's not outrageous to envision him coming off the bench for us as well, much like Kurt Thomas did the last two years. But my money says he'll be starting.

That only leaves shooting guard, and the really big question that is always inherent to the Spurs: will Manu start? Pop jerks him around so much, even he likes to joke about it. Manu, the consumate professional and competitor, doesn't really care. He plays when it really matters, and he'll do anything to help his team win.

There is no doubt that Manu is far and away our best shooting guard. But should he start? Spurs fans are usually divided on this. Some see it as an affront to all that is holy to not have this amazing player starting. I'm not one of those people. I love the way our rotation sets up with Manu coming off the bench, and I think we're ultimately best served by not having him start.

It's hard to get three really great players in rhythm at the same time. With Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili all starting, there just aren't enough balls and enough possessions to get them all into the flow of the game. Parker especially needs to get off to a good start, or he can disappear from a game. It's crucial to get Tony involved and in rhythm in the first four minutes of the game. If he doesn't, he'll usually lose energy and focus and just kind of coast through the game. But in order to get him involved, he needs to be controlling the offense and attacking the rim. This usually leaves Ginobili as the odd man out and underutilized. However, if we bring Ginobili in about the 5:00 minute mark of the game, we should already have Parker established and can now get Manu involved. This also allows us to rest Duncan or Parker or both at the end of the first quarter and still have a lethal scoring threat on the floor.

If Ginobili doesn't start, I'd like to see Roger Mason, Jr. get the start. There hasn't been much talk about Mason, Jr. this offseason, and he seems to have been lost in the shuffle a bit with all the new acquisitions and crop of fresh-faced youngsters. But let's not allow the end of Roger's last season overshadow the beginning. He was an absolute sniper for us, shooting the ball with confidence and courage, filling a necessary role in our offense and even winning some huge games for us. Things started to unravel when Pop made him the de facto back-up PG. This year, that shouldn't be an issue for us. Hill is back-up PG, and Mason, Jr. will be asked to do what he does best--shoot (and make) 3s. With the added burden removed from his shoulders, I think we'll see a return to form of the Big Shot Rog that we all fell in love with during the first half of last season.

And that player is the ideal starting shooting guard for us. He won't be asked to handle the ball or create his own offense or make decisions. All he'll need to do is float around the 3-pt line, waiting for kick outs from a driving Parker or a double teamed Duncan. Much like Parker, Roger is a confidence player. He is well served starting and getting that vote of confidence from Pop and being allowed to play with the big boys. A sniper is only as good as his confidence will allow. He is the ideal 4th scoring option in the starting line-up. No one will game plan for him, and he'll have all the open looks he could ever want.

As far as I know, Pop has given no indication as to the starting line-up come opening night. My guess: Parker, Mason, Jr., Jefferson, Duncan, and McDyess. What do you guys think?

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Thursday, October 01, 2009

"He's Manu. He's Back."

Over at 48MoH, Timothy Varner has a very interesting post regarding the ownership of the team on the floor. He makes some excellent points and hits the nail on the head when he talks about Duncan seamlessly passing the torch to Parker, much the same way that Robinson did for Duncan many years ago. That really encapsulates the greatness of the Spurs: the sublimation of the ego to the higher goal of team achievement.

But the most interesting thing i read today comes from Popovich, courtesy of Jeff McDonald at the Express-News: “He was arguably the best player on the court today. He's Manu. He's back."

And with that, every Spurs fan does a little dance of joy. Parker may be our new alpha dog, our leading scorer and playmaker, but everybody knows that Ginobili is the tell-tale heart. He is our closer, and often the difference between winning and losing close and competitive games. All the offseason moves in the world don't mean a thing without a healthy Ginobili. Parker can make us a great team, and Duncan can make us a dominant team, but Ginobili can make us a special team--a championship team.

Our heart is back.

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